Some rebuild, USC reloads
NCAA Football Betting Lines
07/02/2009 - Philadelphia, PA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Within the world of college basketball, there is a general consensus that the North Carolina Tar Heels have a huge recruiting advantage that helps bring a never ending supply of blue-chippers to Chapel Hill. Of course, a great reason for that advantage is the past success of the program, as the conference titles, Final Four appearances and national championships have piled up along the way.
The football equivalent is on the left coast, in the form of USC. The Trojans possess a seemingly never-ending conveyor belt of talent, and the result is seven straight campaigns of 11 wins or more, seven Pac-10 crowns in a row, seven consecutive BCS Bowl appearances and a couple of national titles sprinkled in.
The 2008 campaign brought more of the same, as Pete Carroll's troops won 12 of their 13 games, with the one blemish being a 27-21 upset loss at Oregon State in late September. The Trojans buckled down after that, winning 10 straight, including a 38-24 victory over a good Penn State team in the Rose Bowl.
The team was once again stellar on both sides of the football, averaging well over 400 yards per game, while yielding just over 200 defensively.
The real question heading into 2009, is whether or not USC has the talent to remain on the top of the heap in the Pac-10 and stay in the hunt for yet another national title.
On the offensive side of things, the Trojans will go into the season with very little experience under center. Mark Sanchez has jumped ship to the NFL and from a financial perspective made the right move, considering the New York Jets made him the fifth pick overall.
The quarterback crop this year consists of Aaron Corp, Matt Barkley and Mitch Mustain. Following the spring, Carroll announced that it will be Corp leading the troops, although competition will still be lively heading into the summer and fall. The main problem with the selection is that Corp, just a sophomore this season, completed only two passes last year as the third-string QB. Still, Carroll has plenty of confidence in Corp, who was a Parade All-American in the prep ranks. Mustain has the most experience, starting eight games at Arkansas before transferring to USC in 2007. Barkley is a true freshman and while he possesses a huge upside, he is still a year or two away from making a real impact under center.
The team's ground game, which averaged almost 200 yards per game last year, returns intact and is a real strength heading into the season. A limitless supply of quality backs will be difficult for defenses to contend with. Expect Carroll to lean heavily on his stable of thoroughbreds, most notably Stafon Johnson, C.J. Gable and Joe McKnight.
The receiving corps loses big target Patrick Turner (third-round draft pick), but returns emerging star Damian Williams, who posted a team-high 58 receptions, for 869 yards and nine TDs in 2008.
The offensive line will also be a real strength, with five starters returning led by Preseason All-American Kristofer O'Dowd at center. There is plenty of depth behind the incumbents, and the result should be one of the nation's best offensive fronts.
The other side of the ball has its share of questions, with only five starters returning. The main concerns are within the front seven, which has lost standout linebackers Brian Cushing, Clay Matthews (both first round draft picks) and Rey Maualuga (second-round pick), as well as Fili Moala (second- round), Kyle Moore (fourth-round) and key reserve Kaluka Maiava (fourth- round).
The new-look front could be built around junior end Everson Griffin, who has star potential and served as an effective pass rush specialist last year.
The secondary loses a pair of steady performers as well in Kevin Ellison and Cary Harris (both selected in the NFL draft), but the crown jewel of the defense returns in the form of All-American safety Taylor Mays. The 6-3, 235- pounder could have left for the NFL after his junior campaign, but the two- time All-American returns to anchor the Trojan defense and is poised for another huge campaign.
With all the holes on both sides of the football heading into the season, most teams would chalk up 2009 as a time to recruit heavily and reload for 2010 and beyond.
However, if we have learned anything since the turn of the century, it is that USC does not qualify as "most teams."
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Teams that should be in: Michigan State, Indiana
Work left to do: Illinois, Purdue, Michigan, Iowa
Behind the big two, the pecking order might be in a bit of flux. Has Michigan State passed Indiana after handling the Hoosiers in East Lansing? Where is Illinois in that mix? What looked like a four-big league last week could be morphing into five -- and even six is not unthinkable at this point if everything breaks right.
Should be in:
Michigan State [21-8 (8-6), RPI: 20, SOS: 15] The Spartans made it four-for-four on the homestand, a gigantic accomplishment that leaves them in extremely good shape. MSU is only 1-6 on the road and is at Michigan and at Wisconsin to close things out, meaning the date with the Wolverines on Tuesday looms very, very large. Beating Texas early will hold up well, as will the rout of Bradley and the win over BYU, but will 8-8 be enough? It very well could be, as the computer numbers are good, but why chance it?
Indiana [18-9 (8-6), RPI: 24, SOS: 32] Hmm ... good thing the last two are at Northwestern and home to Penn State, because IU might want to get both to feel completely safe after dropping its third in the last four, fading after halftime at Michigan State. Who knew the best nonconference win would be over Southern Illinois, which is a gift that keeps on giving for the Hoosiers. The win over Wisconsin also looks good on the mantel.
Work left to do:
Illinois [21-9 (9-6), RPI: 31, SOS: 25] A good performance at Penn State leaves the Illini in pretty good shape. Can they go to Iowa and take care of business to really look on their way? That's a huge game, as there is a possible cluster of teams that will end at 9-7. Illinois beat Bradley, but has lost to Xavier. A 9-7 mark and a semifinals trip in Chicago could be enough with the computer profile hanging in there, but it would be better not to mess around, clinching at least a tie for third.
Purdue [18-10 (7-7), RPI: 47, SOS: 28] Couldn't get it done at Iowa, but did win at Northwestern to put 9-7 squarely in sight. Where does that leave the Boilermakers, though? Even if they beat Minnesota and Northwestern at home, that won't help the computer numbers. Nonconference wins over Virginia, DePaul and Oklahoma are solid, but not spectacular. The Boilers very well might need an upset in the B10 quarters to have a legit claim.
Michigan [19-10 (7-7), RPI: 55, SOS: 53] Well, Michigan did what it needed to do, winning at Minnesota to take control of its fate. The Wolverines have Michigan State and an already-wrapped-up-the-league Ohio State at home to close, so the chances are there. Win both and we can talk. There is no marquee win yet in the profile, and the Wolverines were splattered in several games against name opponents. A mediocre computer profile fueled by a lack of road wins isn't helping, either.
Iowa [16-12 (8-6), RPI: 80, SOS: 64] For the sake of being complete, we'll add Iowa, this season's Stanford. It's plausible that the Hawkeyes could get to 10-6 (at Penn State, vs. Illinois left), but where does that leave them after a gruesome nonconference performance where the best win was over ... Toledo? Iowa State? Cornell?? If they get to 10-6, we can start to look at what they need to do in the B10 tourney, although my gut sense is that they would need to make the final and have knocked off Ohio State or Wisconsin on the way to have any real claim.
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NCAA Football Betting : USC's reward: Top spot in Top 25NEW YORK (AP) -By staying away from the cupcakes, Southern California earned itself a slim new ranking.
No. 1 always seems to fit USC.
Southern California jumped two spots to No. 1 in The Associated Press Top 25 on Tuesday, rewarded by voters for opening the season with a dominant performance on the road against a BCS conference opponent.
Georgia and Ohio State, the preseason Nos. 1 and 2, respectively, started their seasons with glorified scrimmages at home against FCS (formerly I-AA) teams. USC, however, traveled across country to face Virginia and could not have been more impressive in a 52-7 victory.
Georgia fell to No. 2 and Ohio State to No 3.
"We realize that rankings so early in a season are certainly fluid. But rankings do help establish a pecking order for things later in the season," USC coach Pete Carroll said in a statement. "As for moving into the No. 1 spot, it's nice to know that people think highly of our team."
Since reaching No. 1 on Dec. 7, 2003, the final-regular season AP poll of that season, USC has been No. 1 in 39 polls, by far the most of any team during that time.
"Some have said the voters are taking our schedule into consideration," Carroll said. "Our philosophy has always been to schedule outstanding opponents. We need to play challenging games like we just did, traveling across the country to open the season at Virginia. Games like that bring out our best and make us stronger as a team."
The latest voting was close. USC received 21 first-place votes and 1,539 points from the 65-member media panel. Georgia had 20 first-place votes and 1,506 points. Ohio State got 15 first-place votes and 1,497 points.
"I'd say we've evolved as pollsters," said Stewart Mandel of SI.com, who moved USC up to No. 1. "In the past, voters just kind of automatically moved teams up and kept teams where they were if they won."
Georgia beat Georgia Southern 45-21 on Saturday and Ohio State opened with a 43-0 win over Youngstown State.
"There's a bit of a growing backlash for the amount of teams that open with I-AA cupcakes," said Mandel, whose book "Bowls, Polls and Tattered Souls" chronicles college football's controversies. "To see a team [USC] go on the road and play a New Year's Day bowl team from last season, and not only play them but destroy them, how could you not reward that team?"
USC also jumped past Georgia to No. 1 in the USA Today coaches' poll, which has the same top five as the AP poll.
"It's definitely a privilege to be No. 1. But it's not heartbreaking to me if we drop," Georgia offensive lineman Josh Davis said. "It doesn't matter right now what we're ranked. What matters is our next game and right now, that's Central Michigan. The only time the polls matter is in December. That's when the polls matter."
While the Bulldogs opened easy, their schedule ultimately should be as difficult as any team's. Georgia's big nonconference test is at No. 15 Arizona State on Sept. 20. The Bulldogs also face six Southeastern Conference rivals that've been ranked in the first two polls.
As for Ohio State, the Buckeyes play at USC on Sept. 13 before getting into the Big Ten schedule.
But of the teams in this week's top 10, USC and Texas are the only ones that don't play an FCS opponent, and the Trojans are the only team that doesn't play a team from a non-BCS conference.
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The last team to drop from No. 1 after a victory was USC last season. LSU jumped from No. 2 to No. 1 when it beat Tulane 34-9, the same week the Trojans edged Washington 27-24 on the road.
The last preseason No. 1 team to lose the top spot after winning its opening game was Florida in 2001. The Gators beat Marshall 49-14, but preseason No. 2 Miami opened with a 33-7 victory over Penn State and the Hurricanes jumped to No. 1 with Florida slipping to second.
The next four teams in the new Top 25 stayed the same: No. 4 Oklahoma (two first-place votes), No. 5 Florida (five first-place votes), No. 6 Missouri (one first-place vote), No. 7 LSU (one first-place vote) and No. 8 West Virginia.
No. 9 Auburn and No. 10 Texas each moved up a spot, taking advantage of Clemson's big drop. Clemson, ninth in the preseason, fell out after losing 34-10 to Alabama on Saturday.
Also falling out after losses were Virginia Tech, Pittsburgh and Tennessee.
Moving into the rankings were No. 21 Fresno State, No. 22 Utah, No. 23 UCLA and No. 24 South Carolina.
Alabama moved up 11 spots after its big victory over Clemson.
The second 10 started with No. 11 Wisconsin, followed by Texas Tech, Alabama and Kansas. BYU and Arizona State were tied for 15th. Rivals BYU and Utah are both ranked for the first time since 1996.
South Florida was No. 17, ahead of Oregon, Penn State and Wake Forest at No. 20.
The final five were all the teams to move into the ranking, except for Illinois, which dropped four spots and tied South Carolina for No. 24.
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